Markets enter the week with elevated bond-market volatility. The 30-year Treasury yield reached a 19-year high near 5.34 percent on August 18. Separately, the Treasury had already announced its quarterly liquidity-support buyback schedule on August 5, so the buyback plan predates this month's yield high rather than responding to it. Treasury buybacks are a debt- and cash-management tool, not a rate cut and not a Federal Reserve asset-purchase program, and the Treasury has not described them as a response to acute market stress. The yield move coincided with stronger gold and crypto prices and pressure on the dollar, though several market and policy factors contributed to those moves. Semiconductors and megacap technology stocks also showed weakness last week, an unusually tense backdrop heading into Wednesday.
Wednesday is the fulcrum of the week. The second estimate of Q2 GDP, the Fed's preferred July PCE inflation gauge, and Nvidia's fiscal second-quarter earnings all land within hours of each other. Nvidia guided the quarter to $91.0B in revenue, plus or minus 2 percent, and non-GAAP gross margin near 75 percent. From Thursday through Saturday, the Kansas City Fed hosts the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Its confirmed theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy," but as of August 23 the official speaker schedule, including whether and when Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will address the conference, had not been published, roughly three weeks ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.
At the midpoint, Nvidia's $91 billion outlook implies approximately 95% year-over-year growth and 11.5% sequential growth. Market sensitivity to the scale and returns of AI capital spending remains elevated heading into the print.
Marvell's Q1 revenue came in above the midpoint of its own guidance, driven by data center demand and an expanded NVLink Fusion partnership with Nvidia, which invested $2 billion through Marvell Series A convertible preferred stock, initially convertible at approximately $91.84 per common share. Reporting the day after Nvidia, Marvell's results are the market's next data point on whether custom-silicon and AI-interconnect demand is broadening beyond Nvidia itself or concentrating around it.
Market sensitivity to the scale and returns of AI capital spending remains elevated. Nvidia's $91B guidance and its 75% margin target need to hold, or the AI trade takes another hit right as Jackson Hole begins.
The Treasury's quarterly buyback schedule, announced August 5, is a debt- and liquidity-management tool, not monetary policy, and it predates this month's yield spike. Watch whether the 30-year yield, at a 19-year high on August 18, eases or extends into Jackson Hole.
As of August 23, Jackson Hole's speaker schedule had not been published. Investors are watching for any remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, against the backdrop of July's 9-3 dissent, where Hammack, Kashkari and Logan favored a 25-basis-point hike while the fed funds range held at 3.50–3.75%.
Already guided to 35% year-over-year revenue growth for the quarter it reports Thursday. A clean print would help confirm the AI-infrastructure buildout is broadening beyond any single company.
Three off-price and value retailers report within a day of each other, offering a read on lower-income consumer health heading into the Labor Day shopping season.
An early gauge of whether the bond-market turmoil and elevated long-end yields are starting to show up in household sentiment and big-ticket housing decisions.
| Ticker | Company | When | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| PDD | PDD Holdings | Mon BMO | 7:30 AM ET call. |
| BMO | Bank of Montreal | Tue BMO | 7:15 AM ET call. |
| DKS | Dick's Sporting Goods | Tue BMO | Expected before the open. |
| INTU | Intuit | Tue AMC | N/A |
| ZM | Zoom Communications | Tue AMC | 5:00 PM ET webcast. |
| WSM | Williams-Sonoma | Wed BMO | N/A |
| NVDA | Nvidia | Wed AMC | 5:00 PM ET call. See spotlight. |
| CRM | Salesforce | Wed AMC | N/A |
| CRWD | CrowdStrike | Wed AMC | N/A |
| SNPS | Synopsys | Wed AMC | N/A |
| A | Agilent Technologies | Wed AMC | N/A |
| HPQ | HP Inc. | Wed AMC | N/A |
| OKTA | Okta | Wed AMC | N/A |
| DG | Dollar General | Thu BMO | Value retail read. |
| DLTR | Dollar Tree | Thu BMO | Value retail read. |
| BURL | Burlington Stores | Thu BMO | Value retail read. |
| RY | Royal Bank of Canada | Thu BMO | N/A |
| TD | Toronto-Dominion Bank | Thu BMO | ~6:30 AM ET release, 9:30 AM ET call. |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | Thu AMC | 4:45 PM ET call. See spotlight. |